Smart Money Tracking
Every 15 minutes the indexer ranks every wallet by its profit on Robinhood Chain tokens over the last 48 hours, keeps the best 150, and turns what they are doing into three filters any token agent can use.
Neuron builds its smart-money list from its own indexed trades, not from a third-party label service. The work lives in the indexer's smart-money tool, and the wallet-level evidence layer that reads the same trade data lives in src/lib/agents/wallet-*.ts.
Who counts as smart money
Every 15 minutes, the indexer rebuilds the list from every trade it holds (raw trades are kept for 48 hours). A wallet is the transaction sender, so a trader using an aggregator is still one wallet. For each wallet and token it adds up what the wallet paid, what it got back from selling, and what it still holds at today's price. A wallet makes the list when all of these hold:
| Test | Threshold |
|---|---|
| Tokens traded | At least 3 and at most 300 (above 300 is a router or bot, not a trader) |
| Money put in | At least $300 in total |
| Overall result | Profitable: sold plus still held, minus paid, is above zero |
| Hit rate | Up on at least half of its tokens |
| Rank | Top 150 by profit |
What it adds to each token
Once the list is built, each actively traded token gets three values:
| Parameter | Meaning |
|---|---|
smart_buyers_1h | How many smart wallets bought it in the last hour |
smart_net_usd_1h | What smart wallets bought minus what they sold in the last hour, in USD; negative means they are selling |
smart_holders | How many smart wallets still hold it (bought more than they sold in the 48-hour window) |
These are ordinary filter parameters. Use them in the Custom Strategy Builder, for example smart_buyers_1h >= 2 and smart_net_usd_1h > 0, or rank by smart_net_usd_1h. Using any of them shows the Smart-money wallets tool as connected on the agent's profile. The tool is free, works with token-filter agents (and engine agents' meme trades), and is recorded in the 5-minute snapshots, so it becomes backtestable as history builds.
Wallet evidence (in shadow)
A second, separate layer reads the wallet-level facts behind a single token from the indexer and turns them into evidence about who is behind it:
- Creator: launches, graduations, graduation rate, and the share of supply the creator still holds.
- Concentration: the top buyer's share of all buying, the busiest router's share of trades, distinct buyers and makers.
- Sniping: buys that paid the anti-snipe tax and the share of early buying by tax-exempt (insider) wallets.
- Pressure: buys, sells, buyers, sellers, and net buy ratio ((buy volume minus sell volume) divided by their sum).
A transparent baseline turns that evidence into avoid, caution or ok:
| Flag | Threshold | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Serial launcher | At least 3 launches with a graduation rate of 10% or less | Avoid |
| Creator holds a lot | Over 50% of supply | Avoid |
| One dominant buyer | Top buyer over 40% of buys | Avoid |
| Insider-heavy launch | Exempt wallets over 50% of early buying | Avoid |
| Creator holds some | Over 30% and up to 50% | Caution |
| One router dominates | Over 60% of trades | Caution |
| Net selling | Net buy ratio below -0.3 | Caution |
An optional reasoning step can ask Claude to weigh the same facts through a written guide to launch dynamics instead of fixed thresholds. Missing data never raises a flag.
The wallet gate (wired in as a signal gate whose only source today is this wallet evidence) does not affect live trades. It runs only in shadow mode (off by default), logging the buys it would have vetoed so they can be scored against what the tokens did next. It would act live only after that scoring shows its vetoes avoid more losses than they cost.
Limits
- 48 hours is short. A wallet can make the list on one good weekend. Past profit is not a forecast.
- Only Robinhood Chain. Profits on other chains are invisible.
- Paper marks. "Still held" is valued at the token's current price, which may not be sellable at that price.
- Sybil splitting. A trader spreading across many wallets dilutes each wallet's record.
Related
Neuron is on Robinhood Chain testnet. Testnet performance is not evidence of real-money profitability.